Last night, I took my kids out for an American children’s holiday known as Halloween.
Kids (and some ahem… adults) dress up in costume (I was a penguin this year), go door-to-door, saying “Trick or Treat” and get free candy from the neighbors.
My three kids brought back a record 420 pieces of candy. 
In today’s New York Times, I learned that in the weeks leading up to this holiday, Americans purchased $2.7 BILLION dollars in candy.
So here’s my challenge for you.
Assuming all of that candy is consumed by someone in America, estimate the total number of calories represented by $2.7 billion in candy.
Assuming 3,500 calories consumed results in a person gaining 1 lb (0.45 kg) in weight, estimate how many pounds (or kilograms) of weight the American population will gain. Add a comment below to post your entry.
The winner will receive public acknowledgement of their estimation skills, and I will send them a portion of the candy “tax” I collected from my kids.
Yes, we tax our kids for a portion of their candy collection, as mom and dad provide “infrastructure” and “chaperone” services.
It’s a useful lesson in taxation.
(We tax at a 33% tax rate.)
Mostly it is an excuse to reduce the amount of sugar they will otherwise end up consuming.
For my kids, it’s an excuse to get rid of the candy they don’t like anyways.
Good luck and Happy Halloween!
Entries will be accepted for next 72 hours, and only entries posted as comments below will be considered. A winner will be announced next week.
UPDATE as of Friday, November 4TH AT 12PM ET: New entries are welcome, but not eligible to win, as contest has closed.
329 thoughts on “A Sweet Estimation Question”
Assume your children are the average doe candies received (120/child).
Assume trick or treaters are children aged 2-17yo and there is an even distribution per age group of 4million. That is 64 million children trick or treat and each received 120 candies each. This is the entire $2.7b.
That gives 7.68 billion candies received and assume all are consumed.
Assume as they are mainly snack size that 1 candy contains 100 calories on average. That is 768 billion calories consumed by US population.
3500 calories is equal to 1lb weight gain. That is 768b/3500 pounds gained (~219.5M) by entire US population.
Assuming this is distributed over the entire population, the average weight gain of the US population is 219.5M/320M (0.7lb) per person.
Assuming American population is 3m , 2.7b/3m = $900 worth of candy per person consumed !
If each candy bar is, let’s say 1 dollar , and each has calories level at 50 calories , that translate : 900/1* 50=4500 calories per person consumed , that’s 2 times more than average adult daily suggestion nutrition intake.
516 857 142 Lb
Assuming 1 USD will buy a Kit Kat bar which has 600 calories.
2.7 Billion USD will buy 1.8 trillion calories
Assming 3,500 calorie consumption results in 1 lb increase this would mean that there would be an increase of 0.5 billion pounds
Assuming population of 300 million this would mean an average weight increase of 1.6 lbs per person.
However, this probably does not factor in:
1) Most candies would be consumed by children between ages of 5 – 15
2) Children below the age of 2 would consume zero candies
3) Children between the age of 2-5 would probably consume less calories
4) Children between 15- 18 would consume even less
5) People aged between 18-30 would probably not be involved actively and might actually also consume zero calories
6) People above the age of 50 would probably be less involved in this activity
7) There is an increase in activity during Halloween since kids are meeting each other are super excited and walking around the entire neighborhood – so probably should burn more calories than their usual day as well
Assuming a bar of kit kat costing 1 USD has 600 calories
Candy is higher in sugar so most of them probably have higher calories than 600 but some can have less as well
so lets assume 1 USD can buy 600 calories
Thus, 2.7 billion USD will buy 1.8 trillion in Calories
Assuming 1 lb gain is by 3,500 calories
With consumption of 1.8 trillion Calories this will amount to approximately in 0.5 billion pounds in weight gain.
Assuming population of 300 million in US – this will mean that on average each person will gain 1.67 lbs
$2.7 billion on candy; 3500 calories result in gaining 1 lb(0.45kg) in weight per person.
Assume the average calories a piece of candy carries is 100, costing $1 per 10 unit, the candies that are more popular among children would be the heavier calories carriers. So we assume that the most Halloween candies consumed should be higher than average, means $1.2 per 10 unit with 1200 calories.
$2.7 billion/$1.2=2.25 billion units
1200*2.25 billion=2700 billion calories
Population in America is about 3 billion, among which children take one-fourth, 0.75 billion in amount.
Since mostly candies and consumed by only children,
2700billion/0.75billion=3600 calories
3600 calories/3500~1.023lb=0.46kg
While on the other hand, children consume fewer calories than an adult averagely, resulting in higher weight gains than above, maybe 0.5kg per children.
Good evening from Canada,
With 2.7 billion dollars of candy, I am making a preliminary assuming that a chocolate bar represents the average candy with an average calorie count between the different candy types. This simplifies the need to consider different possible candy types (ex. Chocolate, gummies, lollipops) that a person can buy with 2.7 billion dollars and makes the following estimation a little easier.
My estimation includes three steps:
1). How much candy can I buy for 2.7 billion dollars? Knowing that I can get a chocolate bar at the dollar store for $1 dollar each (assuming no tax), I can get 2.7 billion chocolate bars with 2.7 billion dollars.
2). What is the total number of calories gained with 2.7 billion large chocolate bars? I will assume that each chocolate bar has an average calorie count of 500 calories. Therefore, the total calorie count for 2.7 billion chocolate bars is 1.35 trillion calories. This answers your first question of the total number of calories represented by 2.7 billion dollars of candy.
3). What is the number of pounds gained from 1,350 billion calories? Knowing that 3,500 calories result in a person gaining 1 pound, 1.35 trillion calories divided by 3,500 calories/pound = 385.7 billion pounds. This answers your second question of how many pounds of weight the American population will gain from 2.7 billion dollars of candy.
Just to break this number down even further. We know that the population of America is around 300 million people. That means 385.7 billion pounds divided by 300 million people amounts to approximately each person gaining 1.3 thousand pounds from 2.7 billion dollars of candy. Suddenly, your decision to tax your children’s candy to reduce their sugar intake does not seem like a bad idea anymore!
Thanks,
Iris
Question 1: Estimate total calories represented by $2.7B worth of candy
For sake of simplicity (and time) let’s assume:
• 100g of candy represents approx. 500 calories (https://www.google.co.jp/webhp?hl=en&ei=1TAZWIfGO8Ts0gTkqq6oDw#hl=en&q=calories in candy)
• 100g of candy also costs approx. $1 (https://www.walmart.com/ip/Hershey-s-Milk-Chocolate-Kisses-19.75-oz/10449900)
• We also know that there are numerous parameters like type of candies and popularities of each (http://www.cosmopolitan.com/lifestyle/a6942610/most-popular-halloween-candy-by-state/?src=socialflowTW) but we don’t want to spend too much time so let’s move on with this simplified assumptions
With above assumptions,
• $2.7B can buy approx. 270B grams of candy
• 270B grams of candy represents approx. 1,350B calories
Question 2: Estimate how many pounds (or kilograms) of weight the American population will gain
For sake of simplicity and time (again) let’s assume:
• All candy is consumed (as stated)
• 85% of candy consumed by American population i.e. approx. 15% of candy consumed by non-Americans (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demography_of_the_United_States)
• 3,500 calories results in weight gain of 0.45kg
• Weight gain by American population would be = 85% * 1,350B / 3500 * 0.45 kg = 147,535,714 kg = approx. 150,000 metric tons
Sense check: Assuming the American population is approx. 270M and everyone has an equal share of the candy, the average weight gain per person is approx. 0.5 kg
Caveat: Consumption rates (not everyone eats candy), disposal rates (not all candy will be eaten) etc. not considered above… and lastly all these calories will be burned off by exercise. Hopefully.
The American population will gain about $320 million pounds during Halloween
I don’t have a chance at McKinsey, Bain, or BCG but I got this!
$2.7B total candy purchased divided by $.50 (approximate average cost per candy to account for buying in bulk vs retail price) = 5.4B pieces of candy purchased.
5.4B pieces of candy multiplied by 100 (approximate calories in each piece of candy) = 540B calories
If 1 pound = 3,500 calories, the American population will gain about 154 million pounds from Halloween candy.
154 million pounds can buy a lot in the UK these days 😉