Last night, I took my kids out for an American children’s holiday known as Halloween.
Kids (and some ahem… adults) dress up in costume (I was a penguin this year), go door-to-door, saying “Trick or Treat” and get free candy from the neighbors.
My three kids brought back a record 420 pieces of candy. 
In today’s New York Times, I learned that in the weeks leading up to this holiday, Americans purchased $2.7 BILLION dollars in candy.
So here’s my challenge for you.
Assuming all of that candy is consumed by someone in America, estimate the total number of calories represented by $2.7 billion in candy.
Assuming 3,500 calories consumed results in a person gaining 1 lb (0.45 kg) in weight, estimate how many pounds (or kilograms) of weight the American population will gain. Add a comment below to post your entry.
The winner will receive public acknowledgement of their estimation skills, and I will send them a portion of the candy “tax” I collected from my kids.
Yes, we tax our kids for a portion of their candy collection, as mom and dad provide “infrastructure” and “chaperone” services.
It’s a useful lesson in taxation.
(We tax at a 33% tax rate.)
Mostly it is an excuse to reduce the amount of sugar they will otherwise end up consuming.
For my kids, it’s an excuse to get rid of the candy they don’t like anyways.
Good luck and Happy Halloween!
Entries will be accepted for next 72 hours, and only entries posted as comments below will be considered. A winner will be announced next week.
UPDATE as of Friday, November 4TH AT 12PM ET: New entries are welcome, but not eligible to win, as contest has closed.
329 thoughts on “A Sweet Estimation Question”
Using a list with the top 5 most popular candy bars during Halloween: average price $1.134 and average calories 238.1.
Calories consumed this Halloween: 566,904,761,904.
Number of pounds gained by US population (3,500 calories —> 1 pound): 161,972,789.
Current US population: 324,926,269
Weight gained per person: 0.5 pounds
Hi all, this is indeed a really sweet estimation! So, I would like to add a dimension to the estimation which I could not find when going through the comments already made. The additional dimension refers to “normal daily intake” of calories. The normal daily intake of calories is the expected amount of calories that a person consume in order to maintain his or her weight. This benchmark is that normal daily intake for men is 2500kcal and 2000kcal for women. Of course this values varies depending on age, metabolism and levels of physical activity. Nevertheless, this should add a dimension to the sweet estimation question. Here’s my take:
Assumptions:
– The normal daily intake of calories to maintain weight is assumed to be 2500 kcal for both men and women (taking into account that most consumption is made by children which usually have higher matabolism).
– The 3500 calories is assumed to refer to kilo-calories (kcal), where the weight gain is due to overconsumption of kcal in relation to normal daily intake of kcal. Assuming that the weight gain per person should be adjusted to the overcomsumption (3500-2500 kcal = 1000 kcal overconsumption -> 0,45kg).
– 1kg of candy costs on average $9
– 1kg of candy contains on average 5’000 kcal (1g carbs is 4 kcal, 1g of fat is 9 kcal)
– All candy is consumed by the US population
– US population is approx 320Mio
Calculation (mental arithmetic):
– Total amount of candy bought = $2,7B in sales / 9$ per kg candy = in total 300M kg candy bought
– Total calories = 300M kg * 5’000 kcal/kg = 1’500’000 M kcal
– Normal daily intake in US population = 2500 kcal * 320 M people = 800’000 M kcal
– Overconsumption = 1’500’000 M kcal – 800’000 M kcal = 700’000 M kcal
– Total weight gain due to overcomsumption = 700’000 M kcal / 1000 kcal = 700 M kcal * 0,45 kg = ~ 320 M kg
– Weight gained per person in US population = 320 M kg / 320 M people = 1,0 kg/person
Conclusion:
– 400 M kg candy bought is expected to have a weight gain due to overconsumption of kcal to 320 M Kg in total
– The average weight gained per person in US population is 1,0 kg/person over the weekend of Halloween
Assume a $1 dollar candy package contains 10 candy’s with each a 100 calories so that’s 100*10=1.000 calories per bag.
2.7 Bn worth of candy is 2.7 Bn *1.000 = 2.7 Tn calories.
2.7 Tn/3.500=770 Mn pounds or 350 Mn kg gained.
Per person that’s 350 Mn kg/ 300 Mn population: 1.2 Kg gained.
Assume candies have around 500 kcal per 100 grams, and one piece of candy is 20 grams, each piece of candy conveniently has 100 kcal 🙂 if each piece of candy costs 50c, at $2,7 billion spent at have 5,4 billion pieces of candy bought and consumed. In kcal, 540 billion kcal. With a US population of 300 millions and 3500 kcal per pound, each person will gain around 1,6 pounds (not using a Calc here so might be slightly different), or 480 million pounds for the whole population 🙂
Assuming that 1 pack of candies contains 30 pieces 200 cal. each and cost 10 dollars. This gives us 6000 cal. for 10 dollars (600 for 1 dollar) and 1620 billion cal. for given 2.7 billion dollars.
As soon as we know that each 3500 cal. gives us 1 lb in weight, we get 1620/3500 = 0.5 billion lb of weight gained by America population.
There is a tempt to calculate average weight for person, but it wasn’t asked, and weight would widely varied and extension calculation is necessary to get good estimation for this.
Assumptions:
1) American Population = 300 million
2) Average price of candy bar = 2$ (Averaged over price of low end candy bar 1$ and high end candy bar 2$)
3) Average caloric value from one candy bar = 300 calories
4) Caloric value needed to gain one pound = 3500 calories
Estimation:
Market size of candy during Halloween = 2.7 Billion $
Total Quantity of candy = (Market Size/Average price of candy bar) = (2.7 billion/2) = 1.35 Billion units
Total caloric value of candy on the market = Total Quantity of candy * Average caloric value of one candy bar = 1.35 billion * 300 = 405 billion calories
Total weight gained = Total caloric value / Caloric value needed to gain one pound = 405 billion / 3500 = 116 million pounds
If we assume that consumption is uniform across entire US population. This means that average weight gained from US individual will be equal to:
Average weight gain from one citizen = Total weight gained / US population size = 116 million/300 million = 0.39 pounds
$2,7 bn Spent on Candy
Assuming average calories per 100g of candy = 320 Calories, and also assuming average cost of candy per 100g is $0.68, computing this would give $0.05 cost per calorie.
Total calories in $2,7bn worth of candy is 54bn calories ($2,7bn/$0.05)
Divide this 54bn calories by 3500 = 15,4m
15,4m at 0,45 kg each = 6,9m kgs gained in total.
Cant wait to see how wrong I am lol
57,857,142.86 kgs or
128,571,428.57 lbs
Total value of candies purchased = $2.7 Billion
Let us Assume average cost of a candy is= 15 cent
So, no of candies sold= $2.7 billion/$0.15 = 18 Billion
Let us assume one candy will have 100 calories
Therefore total calories consumed will be= 1800 billion
So, Weight gained = 1800 Billion calories/3500 calories = 514 M lbs or 231 M Kgs
771428571 lbs