Last night, I took my kids out for an American children’s holiday known as Halloween.
Kids (and some ahem… adults) dress up in costume (I was a penguin this year), go door-to-door, saying “Trick or Treat” and get free candy from the neighbors.
My three kids brought back a record 420 pieces of candy. 
In today’s New York Times, I learned that in the weeks leading up to this holiday, Americans purchased $2.7 BILLION dollars in candy.
So here’s my challenge for you.
Assuming all of that candy is consumed by someone in America, estimate the total number of calories represented by $2.7 billion in candy.
Assuming 3,500 calories consumed results in a person gaining 1 lb (0.45 kg) in weight, estimate how many pounds (or kilograms) of weight the American population will gain. Add a comment below to post your entry.
The winner will receive public acknowledgement of their estimation skills, and I will send them a portion of the candy “tax” I collected from my kids.
Yes, we tax our kids for a portion of their candy collection, as mom and dad provide “infrastructure” and “chaperone” services.
It’s a useful lesson in taxation.
(We tax at a 33% tax rate.)
Mostly it is an excuse to reduce the amount of sugar they will otherwise end up consuming.
For my kids, it’s an excuse to get rid of the candy they don’t like anyways.
Good luck and Happy Halloween!
Entries will be accepted for next 72 hours, and only entries posted as comments below will be considered. A winner will be announced next week.
UPDATE as of Friday, November 4TH AT 12PM ET: New entries are welcome, but not eligible to win, as contest has closed.
329 thoughts on “A Sweet Estimation Question”
Hi Victor,
My assumptions:
It costs $5 per 1 bag of 25 candies
1 candy = 200 calories
Resulting in potentially 7.1 million pounds gained. However, as most Halloween candy is not consumed, I would estimate this value at half — 3.5 million pounds gained.
What we’ve known:
3500 calories = 1 lb weight gain
$2.7 billion spent
Assumption:
Average candy bar calories: 5540 cal per bag of mini snickers ($11)
Average candy calories: 1400 cal assorted candy ($14)
a 50/50 mix of candies and candy bars bought and consumed
($1.35 bil / $11 ) * 5540 ($1.35 bil / $14 ) * 1400
PS: Round down to $10 and round up to $15
Calories = 135 mil * 5540 90 mil * 1400
Calories = 150 mil * 5000 126000 mil cal
Calories = 750 000 mil 126 000 mil
Calories = 876 000 mil cal
Total weight gain = ( 876 000 / 3500 ) mil
Total weight gain = Roughly 250 mil lbs
Total number of calories: 1trillion
Weight gain of American population:285million lb
1,399,680,000 points
Assume an average price of $2 per pack of 10 candies, each candy containing 200cal.
$2.7 billion/2 = 1.35 billion pack sold.
1.35 billion packs x 10 candies = 13.5 billion candies.
13.5 billion candies x 200 calories = 2700 billion calories.
2700 billion/3500 = (approximately) 0.8 billion lb.
Therefore the American population gained 800million lb this Halloween!
Each person would gain between 8-10 pounds.
Assumptions:
“A $10 bag od candy consists of 100 candys
(https://www.walmart.com/ip/Nestle-Assorted-Miniatures-Candy-Bars-40-oz/25120554) ”
Candy Calorie Data
Max Calorie per candy 872
Min Calorie per candy 23
Average Calorie per candy 97.99687825
STD Dev of data 165.9215516
Candy’s are distributed equally in 6 groups
Calories Candy Count Total Cal
23 45000000 1035000000
188.9215516 45000000 8501469823
354.8431032 45000000 15967939645
520.7646548 45000000 23434409468
686.6862065 45000000 30900879291
852.6077581 45000000 38367349113
Total Calorie 1.18207E 11
Weight Gain per 3500 cal 1 lb
Total Weight gained = (1.18207E 11 / 3500) = 33,773,442.1 lbs (Approx: 33 million lbs)
385,000,000 lbs.
Average candy price for this year is approximately $1.30 per pounce, which is $20.8 per pound. In today’s New York Times, you learned that in the weeks leading up to this holiday, Americans purchased $2.7 BILLION dollars in candy. That means 48,076, 923 pounds of candy was bought. It is estimated 535 calories for every 100 gram of candy. So we are looking at 218,072,115 calories of candies. Assuming 3,500 calories consumed results in a person gaining 1 lb (0.45 kg) in weight, and also assuming that american population consumed all the candies bought this year, we are expecting the american population to gain approximately 62,306 lbs (~28,038 kgs) in weight.
Total number of calories: 1trillion
Weight gain of American population:2.9million lb