Last night, I took my kids out for an American children’s holiday known as Halloween.
Kids (and some ahem… adults) dress up in costume (I was a penguin this year), go door-to-door, saying “Trick or Treat” and get free candy from the neighbors.
My three kids brought back a record 420 pieces of candy. 
In today’s New York Times, I learned that in the weeks leading up to this holiday, Americans purchased $2.7 BILLION dollars in candy.
So here’s my challenge for you.
Assuming all of that candy is consumed by someone in America, estimate the total number of calories represented by $2.7 billion in candy.
Assuming 3,500 calories consumed results in a person gaining 1 lb (0.45 kg) in weight, estimate how many pounds (or kilograms) of weight the American population will gain. Add a comment below to post your entry.
The winner will receive public acknowledgement of their estimation skills, and I will send them a portion of the candy “tax” I collected from my kids.
Yes, we tax our kids for a portion of their candy collection, as mom and dad provide “infrastructure” and “chaperone” services.
It’s a useful lesson in taxation.
(We tax at a 33% tax rate.)
Mostly it is an excuse to reduce the amount of sugar they will otherwise end up consuming.
For my kids, it’s an excuse to get rid of the candy they don’t like anyways.
Good luck and Happy Halloween!
Entries will be accepted for next 72 hours, and only entries posted as comments below will be considered. A winner will be announced next week.
UPDATE as of Friday, November 4TH AT 12PM ET: New entries are welcome, but not eligible to win, as contest has closed.
329 thoughts on “A Sweet Estimation Question”
$2,700,000,000 dollars total
x $27 dolllars per bag
= 100,000,000 bags
40 calories per piece
x 200 pieces per bag
= 8000 calories per bag
100,000,000 bags
x 8000 calories per bag
= 800,000,000,000 calories total
800,000,000,000 calories total
÷ 3500 calories per lb gained
approx = 230,000,000 lbs gained total
should be a ÷ sign on the first calculation of dollars total/dollars per bag.
Base on the average price of a candy bar (I take the number from a article by google) is $1.3 . The total sale in this day is 2.7 BILLION.
In average a candy bar have 1000000 Joules, 1 calo = 4.184 Joules,
First: The amount of candy bar that American population will consume: 2,700,000,000/1.3= (bars)
So the total pounds of weight the American population will gain is:
2076923076.92*1000000/4.181/3500= 141929345469 (pound)
Assumptions:
500 Calories per 100gr of candy.
$1 USD per 100gr of candy.
3500 cal is equivalent of gaining 1 lb of weight on earth.
75% of the population eat candy.
320 millions is the US Population
Results:
240 millions of people eat candy.
1350 billions of calories
385 millions (lb) of gained weight.
1.6 lb is the weight that each person will gain on Earth.
540B calories in $2.7B candy and US population will gain 155M lbs weight.
Back of the envelope calc’s:
Assuming $9/lbs, $2.7B will yield 300M lbs of candy. About 135M kgs.
Assuming 50g per candy, 135M Kgs will yield about 2.7B candies.
Assuming 200 cals per 50g candy, 2.7B candies will yield 540B calories.
At 3500 cal per lb, 540B cals will result in about 155M lbs of weight.
Assuming US population of 310M, each person would increase in weight of about 0.50 lbs.
Hi Victor,
Here is my estimation approach:
As we need to convert candy spend into pounds of weight gain I will use the following formula: $2.7B candy spend / avg. price per one candy x avg. calories per candy / 3,500 calories per one pound of weight gain = weight that American population will gain in pounds.
Here is my estimation for unknown inputs:
1. Avg. price per one candy = usually around $1 per candy (e.g., Kit Kat bar of 50 gram) – one of the most popular.
2. Avg. calories per candy = usually I see around 100-300 calories for average candy, I will go with midpoint of 200 calories per candy.
By inputting numbers in formula I get approx. 150M pounds which is slightly below 0.5 pound per person (Assuming 330M US population). This number appears reasonable to me.
Still, there are other factors that could undermine calculation such as (1) there might be different correlation between candy price per calorie – e.g., non-chocolate (2) by eating candy we may substitute other food that also gain calories, (3) we may exercise more to reduce weight gain impact. Therefore, this weight gain is subject to other assumptions and may not reside in the American population in the mid-term.
Kind regards,
Sergey
The average full sized candy bar is capped at 220 calories per serving. I am going to assume that each piece of candy is on average 1 serving (some full sized candy have 1 serving, some have 4 servings, most full sized candy pieces, I notice, have 2 servings. Let’s also assume that most people buy mini candy pieces to increase amount of candy given out for a particular dollar price).
The average bag of assorted mini halloween candy costs $8, and has about 50 pieces. Let’s round the price to $10 (taxes etc)
$2.7 billion in candy comes out to 270 million bags of candy, which is ~15 billion servings of candy, which is ~ 3300 billion calories, which is ~ a billion pounds in weight ingested.
US population ~ 300 million. weight gained per person = something over 3 pounds.
Reasonableness test –
Is it possible to gain over 3 pounds in a week’s worth of candy consumption, especially since candy is mostly sugar (about 19 gms of sugar per serving), which is metabolized and stored as white fat if not used immediately? I would agree.
That reminds me, I need to do some cardio.
Assuming that a candy bar (snickers) is 100 grams and has 522 calories.
Assuming a candy bar costs USD1
Should be USD2.7billion multiplied by 100grams x 522 ca /3,500 ca = 402 million lbs
300 million pounds
1 trillion kcal consumed
140 million kg gained
Assumed $.50/candy and 50 calories/candy, that’s a total weight gain of 77 million pounds!