Last night, I took my kids out for an American children’s holiday known as Halloween.
Kids (and some ahem… adults) dress up in costume (I was a penguin this year), go door-to-door, saying “Trick or Treat” and get free candy from the neighbors.
My three kids brought back a record 420 pieces of candy. 
In today’s New York Times, I learned that in the weeks leading up to this holiday, Americans purchased $2.7 BILLION dollars in candy.
So here’s my challenge for you.
Assuming all of that candy is consumed by someone in America, estimate the total number of calories represented by $2.7 billion in candy.
Assuming 3,500 calories consumed results in a person gaining 1 lb (0.45 kg) in weight, estimate how many pounds (or kilograms) of weight the American population will gain. Add a comment below to post your entry.
The winner will receive public acknowledgement of their estimation skills, and I will send them a portion of the candy “tax” I collected from my kids.
Yes, we tax our kids for a portion of their candy collection, as mom and dad provide “infrastructure” and “chaperone” services.
It’s a useful lesson in taxation.
(We tax at a 33% tax rate.)
Mostly it is an excuse to reduce the amount of sugar they will otherwise end up consuming.
For my kids, it’s an excuse to get rid of the candy they don’t like anyways.
Good luck and Happy Halloween!
Entries will be accepted for next 72 hours, and only entries posted as comments below will be considered. A winner will be announced next week.
UPDATE as of Friday, November 4TH AT 12PM ET: New entries are welcome, but not eligible to win, as contest has closed.
329 thoughts on “A Sweet Estimation Question”
Firstly, we need to estimate the total number of candies one can buy with $2.7B.
One can buy Regular, Semi-Premium or Premium candies. Since this is halloween and most candies will be given away, we can assume most candies given away are regular. Safe to assume 70% regular, 20% semi-premium and 10% premium.
A typical packet of 30-40 regular candies could cost around $3-$4. Hence each regular candy is priced at $0.1 . Similarly, we assume each semi-premium candy is priced at $0.3 and each premium candy at $0.5
Using above distribution, total number of candies sold is ‘x’
Then, 70%*$0.1*x 20%*$0.3*x 10%*$0.5*x = $2.7B
This gives total number of candies sold = 15B
These candies can be categorized into low, medium and high calorie. Assuming typical candy has about 15 calories. Safe to say 70% candies are medium – 15 calories
20% candies are high – 25 calories
5% candies are low – 5 calories
This means, total calories represented by $2.7B candies is:
(0.7*15 0.2*25 0.05*5) * 15B = 240B calories
Total weight gained using 240B calories is 240B/3500 pounds
= approximately 68M pounds gained by total US population
Assuming US population of 320M, each person gains 0.21 pounds
The average price of candy in the US is $0.50/oz.
$2.7 billion / ($0.50/oz) = 5.4 billion ounces of candy.
Let’s assume that the most popular candy is milk chocolate. 1 cup of milk chocolate (168 g) is 899 calories. 1 oz = 28.35 g. If each bar is 168 g, then we can estimate that each is (168/28.35) ~ 5.6 oz (rounding each up, 170/30 is 5.6).
5.4 billion oz of candy/5.6 oz is (rounding down) ~ 1 billion chocolate bars.
1 billion chocolate bars * (rounding up) 900 cal = 900 billion calories.
900 billion calories/(3500 cal/lb of weight gain) is (rounding down) ~200 million pounds of weight gain.
Estimating each piece of candy costs a little over 9 cents and contains about 60 calories, the US population will gain about 475,701,071 pounds for Halloween. Happy eating.
Hi Vincent,
Americans purchase $2.7B in Candy – assuming population of 319M – each person in the US bought $8.5 worth of candy. Calories from processed sugar is quite cheap. So assuming $1 equals to 1,000 calories, $8.5 will give each person in the US 8,500 calories. From that number each American will gain roughly 2.4 x 0.45kg or around 1.1kg in weight. Multiplying that by the population number again, American will be adding 1.1 x 319M kg or around 351,000 tonnes of extra weight before the end of November.
Paul
160 million pounds
Hi victor,
My estimate is the following:
I assume that 1 sweet costs about 0,1$ by average.
So 2.7 B$ are 27 Billion of sweets.
I also assume that 1 sweet provides 5 calories by average.
That is 135 Billion calories that will be consumed.
With the assumption that 3.5 Kcal contribute with 1 lb in weight, these all sweets will produce about 40 Million of lbs.
About 13 Million lbs in adults and 27 Million lbs for kids.
😀
Assumptions:
1. Average item of candy costs 25 cents
2. Average item of candy contains 50 calories
3. USA population is 320 million people
Step 1:
Total items of candy = total spent on candy / average cost per item of candy
Total items of candy = $2.7billion / $0.25 = 10.8billion candies
Step 2:
Total calories = total items of candy * average calories per candy
Total calories = 10.8billion * 50 = 540billion calories
Step 3:
Total weight gained in pounds = total calories / calories per pound
Total weight gained in pounds = 540billion / 3500 = approximately 15million pounds
Bonus step 4:
Average weight gained per person = total weight gained / total population
Average weight gained per person = 15 million pounds / 320 million people = approximately 0.5 pounds per person!
Synthesis: I am mildly concerned for the health of the US population if people are gaining an average of 0.5 pounds from Halloween candy consumption. Further analysis is needed, however, to determine if the US population also increases their physical activity on average around Halloween to counter the estimated weight gain.
Well, I’m not an American and unfortunately haven’t experienced a traditional American Halloween , but here we go:
Total weight gained by American Population = Total amount spent in candies (USD bn) x Avrg candy cost (USD/unit) x Avrg candy calories (cal/unit) / 1 kg (3,5k cal/ 1 kg) – which leave us with the weight gained in kilograms.
1) USD 2.7 bn spent on candies;
2) Considering the average candy gathering of chocolates, sweeties and others, I came up that an avrg. candy should cost 50 cents, weight 0,1 pound and have 100 cal;
3) So USD 2.7 bn should buy 5.4 bn candies;
4) Not all candy bought goes to the kids’ basket – some of it just is leftover -, so lets consider 5/6 (16,7%) of all candies bought go to the kids and that their parents, such you Victor, charge 1/3 of their earnings. It means that only 50% of all candies are indeed consumed – considering that the parents do not consume it either;
5) It leaves us 2.7 bn candies, or 270 bn calories consumed;
6) It represents 77 m kg gained by American Population or yet 0,4 kg per American (considering US population of 300 M);
7) Well, I’m glad to have not gained none of this weight; and
8) a) I would be very happy to be a dentist in US during the Halloween time; or
b) I’d force my children to brush their teeth very hard! : )
Thanks,
JS
I calculated approximately 12 lbs (or ~5.42 kgs) of weight should be gained per American based on an estimation that the average calorie intake of a chocolate bar being ~500 calories and costing ~$1 each.
As a side note, for this to actually occur all Americans would have to consume all the calories in one sitting without any calories being burnt off.
estimated American population will gained 30,857,000 lb.