Last night, I took my kids out for an American children’s holiday known as Halloween.
Kids (and some ahem… adults) dress up in costume (I was a penguin this year), go door-to-door, saying “Trick or Treat” and get free candy from the neighbors.
My three kids brought back a record 420 pieces of candy. 
In today’s New York Times, I learned that in the weeks leading up to this holiday, Americans purchased $2.7 BILLION dollars in candy.
So here’s my challenge for you.
Assuming all of that candy is consumed by someone in America, estimate the total number of calories represented by $2.7 billion in candy.
Assuming 3,500 calories consumed results in a person gaining 1 lb (0.45 kg) in weight, estimate how many pounds (or kilograms) of weight the American population will gain. Add a comment below to post your entry.
The winner will receive public acknowledgement of their estimation skills, and I will send them a portion of the candy “tax” I collected from my kids.
Yes, we tax our kids for a portion of their candy collection, as mom and dad provide “infrastructure” and “chaperone” services.
It’s a useful lesson in taxation.
(We tax at a 33% tax rate.)
Mostly it is an excuse to reduce the amount of sugar they will otherwise end up consuming.
For my kids, it’s an excuse to get rid of the candy they don’t like anyways.
Good luck and Happy Halloween!
Entries will be accepted for next 72 hours, and only entries posted as comments below will be considered. A winner will be announced next week.
UPDATE as of Friday, November 4TH AT 12PM ET: New entries are welcome, but not eligible to win, as contest has closed.
329 thoughts on “A Sweet Estimation Question”
Based on data from the following source, the standard American Candy contains 4.75 calories per gram of candy.
(http://calorielab.com/foods/candy-bars/108)
Also, on an average, $1 would buy 25g of candy.
(http://lollyworld.com.au/product-category/american-candy/page/2/)
Now, most of the candy purchased would be in bulk, which would give households 10% off (Assumption)
Therefore, actual spend during Halloween in Candy = $2.7million/90*100 = $3million
Mass of candy bought by USA during Halloween = 25g/$*$3million = 75 million g
Amount of calories in candies bought during Halloween = 75 million g * 4.75 calorie/gram = 356.25 million calories
Total weight gained during Halloween = 356.25 million calories*0.45kg/3500calories = 45,803.5 Kg
Population of USA = 324 million
Assumption: Each individual in America consumes equal amount of this candy bought during Halloween. Further, no activity that involves collection of candies and burning of calories simultaneously is to be considered significant here. Also, no of US residents = US population, i.e., we neglect refugees, people working abroad etc.
Thus, Weight gained by the US population due to Halloween candy = 1.41 * 10^-4 Kg = 1.41 g
Ans.: 1.41g
Please note that the final weight calculation is per individual. The aggregate weight gained is 45,803.5 Kg or 101,785.5 lbs
Step 1: Calculation of the number of calories in $2.7 billion candy
Assuming an average candy costs $1.35 and has 80 calories,
Total number of calories in $2.7 billion candy
= 2.7 billion/1.35 x 80 calories
= 160 billion calories
Step 2: Total pounds gained by the entire American population
Lets assume that all candies are consumed by Americans and none are wasted or remain unconsumed
Total pounds gained
= 160 billion calories x 1 pound / 3,500 calories
= 46 million pounds
Step 3: Validation
To validate, we estimate the pounds gained per child.
Assuming that out of a total population of 300 million 25% consume these candies, 75 million would have consumed these candies.
Therefore, the weight gained per consumer
= 46 million pounds/ 75 million
= 0.6 pounds
Which means an average consumer of candy, would gain 0.6 pounds
Sounds within a ballpark!
FINAL ESTIMATE: The American population would collectively gain 46 million pounds due to candy.
We can consider a bar of chocolate that costs $1, having 500 calories.
This means that for every 7 bars of chocolate that a person eats, she gains 1lb.
$2.7 billion in candy = 2.7 billion bars of chocolate ~ 400 mi lb gained in the total American population, or an average of 1.25 lb per person (considering the American population as 320 million people)
Assumptions:
$5 Average price per box of candies.
Average 300 Calories/box
Number of boxes purchased: $2.7B/$5 = 540M
Total number of calories = 300X540M = 162B
If 3500 calories increase weight by 1lb, 162B calories increase about 45M lbs.
The American population will gain 77.318.181,82 kg.
estimated calories: 540 billion calories
estimated weight gain: 154 million pound
Figure I bought candy for about $0.10 / piece in a big bag… a Snickers bar is roughly 100 calories, but there are some folks who give a couple of Starburst or SweetTarts, so figure 70 calories in the average candy. That gives about 190 Billion calories which would result in a gain of about~550 Million pounds. Or about the same weight as 2 million market pigs.
Hi,
here is my solution
lets assume the candy price to be about 10 USD/KG
and it contains in average 3500kcal/kg of candy (pure sugar is about 4000kcl/kg) Thou chocolate is more, about 5000kcl/kg
Then we’ll get the 2,7billion devided by 10 = 270M kg
if we use the average 3500kcal ==> one pound gained
the US will gain 270M pounds.
Then if there is a lot of chocolate in those candies the average energy contain wil be higher, well say 4050 kcal/kg (1,1 times 3500) or 4400 kcal/kg (1.2 times)
Then we’ll get the america to gain 1,1 times 270 M pounds
= about 297m pounds
and 1,2 times 270M pounds = 324M pounds
Assumptions:
$2.7 billion in candy
$10 = 2.2 lb bag of candy (1 kg)
1 serving size = 50 g = 200 calories
3500 cal = 1 lb weight gain
The American Population will gain 771,429 pounds from consuming 270,000 kilograms of candy for which they spent over $2.7 million dollars.
Best,
Total number of calories represented by $2.7 billion in candy (estimate):
785,884,956,186 calories (785.9 billion).
Kilograms of weight the American population will gain:
101,042,352 kg
Thanks for this fun task!