Last night, I took my kids out for an American children’s holiday known as Halloween.
Kids (and some ahem… adults) dress up in costume (I was a penguin this year), go door-to-door, saying “Trick or Treat” and get free candy from the neighbors.
My three kids brought back a record 420 pieces of candy. 
In today’s New York Times, I learned that in the weeks leading up to this holiday, Americans purchased $2.7 BILLION dollars in candy.
So here’s my challenge for you.
Assuming all of that candy is consumed by someone in America, estimate the total number of calories represented by $2.7 billion in candy.
Assuming 3,500 calories consumed results in a person gaining 1 lb (0.45 kg) in weight, estimate how many pounds (or kilograms) of weight the American population will gain. Add a comment below to post your entry.
The winner will receive public acknowledgement of their estimation skills, and I will send them a portion of the candy “tax” I collected from my kids.
Yes, we tax our kids for a portion of their candy collection, as mom and dad provide “infrastructure” and “chaperone” services.
It’s a useful lesson in taxation.
(We tax at a 33% tax rate.)
Mostly it is an excuse to reduce the amount of sugar they will otherwise end up consuming.
For my kids, it’s an excuse to get rid of the candy they don’t like anyways.
Good luck and Happy Halloween!
Entries will be accepted for next 72 hours, and only entries posted as comments below will be considered. A winner will be announced next week.
UPDATE as of Friday, November 4TH AT 12PM ET: New entries are welcome, but not eligible to win, as contest has closed.
329 thoughts on “A Sweet Estimation Question”
Candy Consumption in US around Halloween
Candy Purchases $2,700,000,000
Average price of 2lbs candy $10
Number of pounds purchased 135,000,000 ($2.7B/$10)
Calories per pound of candy 2200 (source: google)
Calories consumed by US 297,000,000,000 (123M x 2200)
Calories consumed to gain 1lb 3500 (given)
Total Lbs gained by US population 84,857,143 (297B/3500)
US population 325,000,000 (US Census Clock)
Lbs gained per person 0.26 (Total lbs/US pop)
Additional estimation:
% of population that eats Halloweeen candy
ages 5-19 65,000,000 – assuming 20% of population
Parents of children 117,000,000 assuming 1.8 per child
Total candy eaters on Halloween 182,000,000
Pounds gained per candy eating population 0.47
Answer: Total American population will gain a total weight of 54 million pounds (lbs)**
Assumptions:
1. American population=270 million
2. $2 price per candy
3. 1 candy=140 calories
Methodology:
$2.7 billion candy purchased by 270 million people=2.7billion/270million=$10 candy per person
$2 price per candy=10/2=5 candies consumed per person
Total calories consumed per person=140×5=700 calories
Total weight gained by 700 calories=1/(700/3500)=0.2 lbs per person
Weight gained by total American population=0.2 lbs x 270 million=54 million pounds.
**Caveat=Needed to conduct market research study 😉 about average calories consumed and burnt by an average American for a more accurate estimate of the total weight gained by the American population
Correction to the previous entry:
Assumptions:
$5 Average price per box of candies.
Average 250 calories/serving
Average 8 servings/box
Calories per b0x = 2k Claories
Number of boxes purchased: $2.7B/$5 = 540M
Total number of calories = 2kX540M = 1T approximately
If 3500 calories increase weight by 1lb, 162B calories increase about 1T/3500 = 290M lbs
Question: How many pounds will the American population gain if they consume $2.7 Billion in candy?
Given: 3,500 Calories = 1 Pound
There are two main types of Candy:
1. A “Fun Size” candy bar (e.g., Snickers, Mars, Kit Kat, Almond Joy) consists of about 80 calories, and there are about 30 “Fun Size” bars in a 1 Pound Bag. This equates to 2,400 Calories per 1 Pound Bag of Candy Bars.
2. One serving of hard candy (e.g., 3 Jolly Ranchers, One Twizzler, 3 Starbursts) consists of about 50 calories, and there are about 20 servings in a 1 Pound Bag. This equates to 1,000 Calories per 1 Point Bag of Hard Candy.
I assume 2/3 of Americas Halloween sweets are candy bars and 1/3 are hard candy, so $1.8 B and $0.9 B.
An 1 Pound Bag of Fun size Candy Bars retails for $4.
$1.8 B / $4 = 450 Million 1 Pound Bags
$450 Million Bags x 2,400 Calories/Bag = 1.08 E 12 Calories
1.08E12 Calories / 3,500 Calories = 309,000,000 Pounds
An 1 Pound Bag of Hard Candy retails for $3.
$0.9 B / $3 = $300 Million 1 Pound Bags
$300 Million Bags x 1,000 Calories/Bag = 3 E 11 Calories
3E11 Calories / 3,500 Calories = 86,000,000 Pounds
Americans will gain 309 Million Pounds from Candy Bars and 86 Million Pounds from Hard Candy, equating to a total of 395 Million Pounds.
There are 2 numbers we are trying to get to here:
Total Pounds Gained by Americans & Total Calories Represented by $2.7B in Candy.
Overall Equation=
(Total Purchased/Average Cost Per Pound)*(Factor for Lollipop Sticks, Wrappers and etc.)= Total Pounds Consumed =
Total pounds Gained by Americans (Reasoning: Since Total Pounds of Candy Consumed was made equal to the Total Pounds Gained.)
is estimated to be ~1.775B lbs of weight gained
Total # of Calories Consumed=
~1.775B *3500 Calories = ~6.213 Trillion
Here are the numbers behind how I came up with that estimate:
Since we already have the total purchased amount($2.7B USD), we need to come up with a number for the Average Cost Per Pound of Candy. For that, I have used the following estimation model:
5 lb bags have an avg Cost per pound (CPP) of
$1.15
3 lb bags have an Avg CPP of:
$1.33
1 lb bags have an Avg CPP of:
$2.60
Candy Bars (Assuming avg wt of 6.4 oz or .4 lbs) have an Avg CPP of:
$2.81
(Reasoning: On average, retailers tend to provide a better value for bulk purchases.)
Assuming a purchase distribution by weight of 5 lbs=50%, 3 lbs=30%, 1 lbs=15%, Candy Bars=5% (Reasoning: Large bag purchases are not only more common for a household, but it also weighs more creating an uneven distribution.)
Overall Avg CPP =
(50%*$1.15) (30%*$1.33) (15%*$2.60) (5%*$2.81)=
$1.51
Total Purchased/Avg CPP=
$2.7B/$1.51=
~1.793B lbs of weight gained
(Factor for waste) (Reasoning: Assuming that 1% of the net weight is wrappers, lollipop sticks and etc.)
~1.793B *99%=~1.775B lbs of weight gained
Total # of Calories Consumed=
~1.775B *3500 Calories = ~6.213 Trillion
Need to factor all of the above numbers by 3/9 & 4/9.
Caloric density per gram of sugar is 4 kcal per gram.
Caloric density per gram of fat is 9 kcal per gram.
Obviously, candy won’t be PURE sugar, so we will take a low-end estimate of 3 and a high end of 4.
The range of total Calories consumed =
2.071 Trillion – 2.761 Trillion
(3/9 * 6.213) – (4/9 *6.213)
The range of weight gained:
591.7M – 788.9M
(2.071T/3500) – (2.761T/3500)
Facts
-around 320 mln people in US
-2700 mln US dollars spent for candies
Assume that a candy of 150 calories costs about 0,5$ in average.
So we have 2700 $mln in total over 0,5$ for each candy, equal 5400 mln candies. Consider each has in avg 150 calories, it results into 810 bln calories.
Thus 810 bln calories can be translated into around 231 mlh lb (around 104 mln Kg) of weight gain for US population
This means each US person, in avg., gains around 0,72 lb (around 0,32 Kg)
According to wiki, the most popular candy brand in the US is M&Ms. The average M&M packet containing 19.2 oz of candy is priced at circa $5. Each packet packs about 220 calories.
Now, assuming that the 19.2 oz weighing M&M packet reasonably represents the other candy bought (due to its small packaging that can be distributed to lots of kids), if the US population spent $2.7 Billion on candy this Halloween, that equates to about 540 Million M&M bags. Which contain approx. 118 Billion calories.
Americans gained about 33.9 Million LBs (about 15.3 Million KGs) of weight this Halloween, give or take (= / -) 10%.
Total Calories:
1. $10 for 50 pack of candy
2. $2.7 billion = 270 million packs of candy = 13.5 billion pieces
3. 200 calories per piece of candy
4. 13.5 billion pieces x 200 calories = 2.7 trillion calories ~ 3 trillion calories
Total Pounds
1. 3 trillion calories / 3500 calories per pound = 800~850 million pounds
My guess is 400,000,000 pounds (2.7 billion in sales / ~3 dollar cost per bag of halloween candy * ~1600 calories per bag / 3,500 calories per pound) – this however doesnt take into account all the walking you do on halloween which probably burns about ~500 calories per hour walked or how different metabolisms react to calorie loads (kids vs adults)
Total Number of Calories: 1.35 Trillion
Average pound gained by an American : 1 lb.
I agree with Chris B’s estimate. Here is why:
Assumptions
#0 $2700000000 of candies purchased
#1 Most people buy halloween candy in bulk
#2 Walmart has reasonable average prices for candy
#3 Halloween candy evenly split between hard candies and chocolates
#4 Halloween candies deliver and average of 502 calories / dollar (Based on a study of 8 popular brands evenly split between hard candies and chocolates. See data below for details.)
Calculations:
$2.7B candy sales * 502 calories per dollar = 1.3 Trillion Calories
1.35 trillion calories / 3500 calories per pound = 387 Million pounds
387 million pounds / 318.9 million = 1.2 pounds / person
Supporting Data:
KitKat $9.99 per bag 505 calories / $
Spangler Dum Dum Pops, 300ct $10.51 per bag 561 calories / $
Snickers: Halloween Minis Mix Chocolate, 40 oz $10.19 per bag 534 calories / $
Life Savers 5 Flavors Hard Candy Bag, 41 ounce $14.92 per bag 310 calories / $
Twix Minis Cookie Bar Halloween Candies, 40 oz $9.94 per bag 558 calories / $
Werther’s Original Gusset Bag, 34 oz $9.95 per bag 422 calories / $
Hershey’s Chocolate Miniatures Assortment, 19.75 Oz $5.56 per bag 491 calories / $
Starburst Original Fruit Chews Candy Bag, 41 ounce $7.33 per bag 633 calories / $